Diagnostic stability of autism spectrum disorder in toddlers prospectively identified in a community-based setting: Behavioural characteristics and predictors of change over time

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Barbaro, J. & Dissanayake, C. (2016). Diagnostic stability of autism spectrum disorder in toddlers prospectively identified in a community-based setting: Behavioural characteristics and predictors of change over time. Autism, 21(7), 830-840. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316654084

Publication date: 28 Jul 2016 Added to AutiHub: 7 Sep 2026 Type: Article Article language: English
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Authors

Publication authors
2
Publication authors identified as autistic
1 / 2 (50.0%)
  1. Josephine Barbaro *
  2. Cheryl Dissanayake

Abstract

Autism spectrum disorder diagnoses in toddlers have been established as accurate and stable across time in high-risk siblings and clinic-referred samples. Few studies have investigated diagnostic stability in children prospective identified in community-based settings. Furthermore, there is a dearth of evidence on the individual behaviours that predict diagnostic change over time. The stability and change of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses were investigated from 24 to 48 months in 77 children drawn from the Social Attention and Communication Study. Diagnostic stability was high, with 88.3% overall stability and 85.5% autism spectrum disorder stability. The behavioural markers at 24 months that contributed to diagnostic shift off the autism spectrum by 48 months included better eye contact, more directed vocalisations, the integration of gaze and directed vocalisations/gestures and higher non-verbal developmental quotient. These four variables correctly predicted 88.7% of children into the autism spectrum disorder–stable and autism spectrum disorder–crossover groups overall, with excellent prediction for the stable group (96.2%) and modest prediction for the crossover group (44.4%). Furthermore, non-verbal developmental quotient at 24 months accounted for the significant improvement across time in ‘Social Affect’ scores on the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule for both groups and was the only unique predictor of diagnostic crossover. These findings contribute to the body of evidence on the feasibility of diagnoses at earlier ages to facilitate children’s access to interventions to promote positive developmental outcomes.

Bibliography cited by this reference

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Cited bibliography overview

These indicators describe the bibliography cited by this publication. An author name is counted each time it appears in one cited reference, so the same person can be counted more than once. Names not yet linked to an author already present in AutiHub are treated as unknown, not as non-autistic. Last computed: 12 Sep 2026 18:18.

Cited references
47
With a DOI
36
Without a DOI, from raw bibliography text
9
5 / 47 (10.6%) cited references include at least one author identified as autistic.
References with data to complete
2 / 47 (4.3%)
References with detected author names
46 / 47 (97.9%)
Without detected author names
1
Without a structured title
1
Without a stable identifier
9
References with raw author names still to review
0
References with external metadata lookup issues
0
These indicators apply to cited references displayed on this page, after technical duplicates have been merged. A reference without a DOI can still support author statistics when a title and author names are available.
Author names detected in the cited bibliography
236
From DOI or external metadata
236
From validated raw bibliography text
0
Raw names already validated
0
Raw names still to review
0
68 / 236 (28.8%) names are linked to an author already present in AutiHub. 168 / 236 (71.2%) names are not yet linked.
Names linked to a person identified as autistic
5 / 236 (2.1%)
Calculated across all author names detected in the cited bibliography. Among names linked to an author already present in AutiHub: 5 / 68 (7.4%). Distinct people identified as autistic: 1 / 175 (0.6%).
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