Prediction Gone Awry: A Computational Framework for Emotion Dysregulation Across Autism and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

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Srinivasan, H., Cascio, C. J., & Wallace, M. T. (2026). Prediction Gone Awry: A Computational Framework for Emotion Dysregulation Across Autism and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder. Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology, 36(8), 461-472. https://doi.org/10.1177/10445463261448490

Publication date: 11 May 2026 Added to AutiHub: 25 Sep 2026 Type: Article Article language: English
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3
Publication authors identified as autistic
1 / 3 (33.3%)
  1. Hari Srinivasan *
  2. Carissa J. Cascio
  3. Mark T. Wallace

Abstract

Emotion dysregulation is a common issue across childhood and adolescence, including in autism and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Yet most accounts remain descriptive—focusing on irritability, rapid escalation, slow return to baseline—without specifying the computational processes that stabilize emotions in context. We propose a predictive-coding account in which emotion regulation depends on how the brain predicts bodily and environmental signals, detects mismatches, between expectation and sensation, and determines how much confidence to assign those mismatches. Within this framework, dysregulation can arise when prediction errors are assigned excessive precision (i.e., incoming signals are overweighted relative to prior expectations, making them feel “too loud”), amplifying emotional reactivity or when prior expectations update too slowly (feelings get “stuck”), prolonging emotional states beyond contextual demands. We hypothesize that autism may involve heightened confidence assigned to surprising inputs together with sluggish updating of expectations, a combination that can produce both reactivity and emotional inertia. ADHD, by contrast, may be characterized by weaker expectations and unstable gain control, meaning the system’s amplification of incoming signals fluctuates from moment to moment, contributing to rapid, reactive swings in affect. We outline candidate physiological correlates—including heart-rate variability dynamics, pupillary variability, mismatch negativity, and neural indices of interoceptive precision—that could evaluate these hypotheses. Framing intervention around restoring flexible inference rather than suppressing emotion offers a mechanistic direction for developmental research. These predictions await empirical validation in developmental samples.

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65
With a DOI
63
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2
0 / 65 (0.0%) cited references include at least one author identified as autistic.
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65 / 65 (100.0%)
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0
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Without a stable identifier
2
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0
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Author names detected in the cited bibliography
269
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269
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30 / 269 (11.2%) names are linked to an author already present in AutiHub. 239 / 269 (88.8%) names are not yet linked.
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Calculated across all author names detected in the cited bibliography. Among names linked to an author already present in AutiHub: 0 / 30 (0.0%). Distinct people identified as autistic: 0 / 247 (0.0%).
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