Prevalence of autism among adults in Canada: results from a simulation modelling study

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Collins, E., Edjoc, R., Farrow, A., Dharma, C., Georgiades, S., Holmes, K., Orchard, C., O’Donnell, S., Palmeter, S., Salt, M., & Al-Jaishi, A. (2025). Prevalence of autism among adults in Canada: results from a simulation modelling study. BMJ Open, 15(6), e089414. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-089414

Publication date: 1 Jun 2025 Added to AutiHub: 29 Sep 2026 Type: Article Article language: English
Publisher source (DOI) OpenAlex source

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Authors

Publication authors
11
Publication authors identified as autistic
1 / 11 (9.1%)
  1. Erin Collins
  2. Rojiemiahd Edjoc
  3. Amy Farrow
  4. Christoffer Dharma
  1. Stelios Georgiades
  2. Kieran Holmes
  3. Christa Orchard
  4. Siobhan O’Donnell
  1. Sarah Palmeter
  2. Mackenzie Salt *
  3. Ahmed Al-Jaishi

Abstract

Objective To estimate the prevalence of autism among adults living in Canada. Design A Monte Carlo simulation modelling approach was employed. Input parameters included adult population estimates and mortality rates; autism population all-cause mortality risk ratios; and autism prevalence estimates derived from child and youth data due to the lack of adult data. This approach was executed through 10 000 simulations, with each iteration generating a distinct data scenario. Prevalence estimates were reported as the mean with the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles, corresponding to a 95% simulation interval (SI). Setting Where possible, Canadian data sources were used, including the 2019 Canadian Health Survey on Children and Youth and Statistics Canada mortality rates and population estimates. Primary outcome measure National prevalence estimates of autistic adults living in private dwellings in Canada, with variations in prevalence by sex at birth and province/territory considered. Results The findings suggest the prevalence of autism among adults in Canada to be 1.8% (95% SI 1.6%, 2.0%). National prevalence estimates by sex at birth were 0.7% (95% SI 0.6%, 0.9%) for females and 2.9% (95% SI 2.6%, 3.2%) for males. Provincial/territorial estimates ranged from 0.7% in Saskatchewan (95% SI 0.3%, 1.3%) to 3.6% in New Brunswick (95% SI 2.4%, 5.1%). Conclusions The limited availability of data on autistic adults constrains our ability to fully understand and address their unique needs. In this study, autism prevalence was estimated based on diagnosed cases, which excludes individuals without a formal diagnosis. Additionally, other factors such as data availability and methodological assumptions may influence the modelling of prevalence estimates. As a result, our findings should be interpreted within the context of these limitations. Nevertheless, this study provides a valuable reference point for understanding autism prevalence among adults in Canada.

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Cited bibliography overview

These indicators describe the bibliography cited by this publication. An author name is counted each time it appears in one cited reference, so the same person can be counted more than once. Names not yet linked to an author already present in AutiHub are treated as unknown, not as non-autistic. Last computed: 2 Oct 2026 07:58.

Cited references
51
With a DOI
35
Without a DOI, from raw bibliography text
16
0 / 51 (0.0%) cited references include at least one author identified as autistic.
References with data to complete
16 / 51 (31.4%)
References with detected author names
35 / 51 (68.6%)
Without detected author names
16
Without a structured title
16
Without a stable identifier
16
References with raw author names still to review
14
References with external metadata lookup issues
2
These indicators apply to cited references displayed on this page, after technical duplicates have been merged. A reference without a DOI can still support author statistics when a title and author names are available.
Author names detected in the cited bibliography
171
From DOI or external metadata
171
From validated raw bibliography text
0
Raw names already validated
0
Raw names still to review
17
52 / 171 (30.4%) names are linked to an author already present in AutiHub. 119 / 171 (69.6%) names are not yet linked.
Names linked to a person identified as autistic
0 / 171 (0.0%)
Calculated across all author names detected in the cited bibliography. Among names linked to an author already present in AutiHub: 0 / 52 (0.0%). Distinct people identified as autistic: 0 / 157 (0.0%).
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